A recent poll published on Thursday reveals a significant shift in the presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points among registered voters. The poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, shows Harris gaining momentum among women and Hispanic voters, with a 13-point lead among both demographics.
This surge in support for Harris comes after a tumultuous summer for the Democratic Party, marked by President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the campaign in July. Since then, Harris has capitalized on the opportunity, making significant gains against Trump in national polls and critical swing states.
The latest survey indicates a tightening race, with Trump maintaining leads among white voters and men, but his margin narrowing among voters without a college degree. Trump’s lead in this demographic has decreased from 14 points in July to just 7 points in the latest poll.
Harris’s advantage over Trump has expanded since a late July poll, which showed her leading by only 1 point. The Vice President’s campaign has focused on mobilizing key constituencies, including women and Hispanic voters, who have historically been crucial in determining the outcome of presidential elections.
The poll’s findings suggest a shake-up in the presidential race, with Harris’s momentum threatening to upend Trump’s chances. However, it’s important to note that state-by-state results will ultimately determine the election outcome, and Trump remains competitive in key battleground states.
In the seven states where the 2020 election was closest, Trump holds a narrow 2-point lead over Harris. These states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada – are likely to be decisive in the election, and both campaigns are expected to focus significant resources on winning them over.
Republican strategist Matt Wolking notes that while the shift in numbers presents a challenge for Trump, it is not insurmountable. “Trump needs to stay focused and avoid scaring off voters who are leaning his way,” Wolking said. “If he can maintain his support among key demographics and make inroads with undecided voters, he can still win this election.”
