Author: HeraldStar

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD Recent data from the International Monetary Fund has offered a revealing snapshot of how the world’s financial architecture is quietly evolving. Global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks climbed 6.5 percent in 2025 to a record $13.1 trillion — the highest level since the IMF began tracking the figures in 1995. Yet within that impressive total lies a subtle but unmistakable shift: the US dollar’s share slipped from 58.52 percent in 2024 to 56.77 percent, its lowest point on record. For the 12th quarter running, the dollar has stayed below the 60 percent threshold.…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD The release of China’s foreign trade data for the first quarter of 2026 offers a significant vantage point from which to observe the evolving architecture of global commerce. Reaching a total value of RMB 11.84 trillion—a 15 percent year-on-year increase—China’s trade sector has not only crossed the RMB 11 trillion threshold for the first time in a single quarter but has also recorded its highest growth rate in nearly five years.One of the most striking elements of the Q1 report is the geographic redistribution of trade. China’s trade with ASEAN and Latin America both grew…

By Qaiser Nawab In a world gripped by the chaos of the 2026 Iran war, where missiles flew, the Strait of Hormuz teetered on closure, and global oil markets trembled, Pakistan stepped forward as an unlikely but effective mediator. On April 8, 2026, just hours before a menacing deadline set by US President Donald Trump, a two-week ceasefire between the United States, Iran, and Israel took effect brokered through intense Pakistani efforts. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the breakthrough, inviting delegations to Islamabad for direct talks starting April 10. US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the American…

By Qaiser Nawab At a time when the world is witnessing deepening polarization, rising conflicts, and shrinking spaces for dialogue, Pakistan has stepped into a role that is both historic and necessary. The ongoing diplomatic engagements in Islamabad—bringing together key regional powers amid the escalating Iran crisis—reflect not only urgency but also opportunity. This is Pakistan’s moment to redefine its global image: from a frontline state in conflicts to a frontline state for peace. The current crisis, now entering a dangerous phase, is not limited to one country or region. It carries implications that stretch far beyond the Middle East.…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD At a sprawling clean-energy expo in China, European executives come looking for partners—and lower costs. “China leads the game in renewable hydrogen production capacity. Of the $110 billion committed investment globally in clean hydrogen, China accounts for nearly a third ($33 billion). We can open new trusted energy partnerships to keep driving our industries forward to ensure that we maintain industrial competitiveness, which means high quality jobs and booms for both the economy and the society,” Ivana Jemelkova, CEO of the Belgium-headquartered Hydrogen Council said at the Clean Energy Expo China (CEEC) held in Beijing…

ByQaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD The petrodollar system, which has anchored the US dollar’s dominance in global energy markets for five decades, is showing measurable signs of strain. The 1974 agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia — under which Riyadh priced oil exports in dollars and recycled surpluses into US Treasuries in exchange for security guarantees — created a self-reinforcing cycle that sustained dollar demand. In 2026, however, that arrangement is under pressure from multiple directions. Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20–21 million barrels per day of crude and products (roughly 20–27% of…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD Global oil prices rose sharply in early 2026, with Brent crude exceeding $100 per barrel in mid-March after disruptions in the Middle East and heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices fluctuated between $92 and $111 per barrel during the month, pushing up gasoline and diesel costs in oil-importing economies and adding immediate pressure on transport, freight, and manufacturing expenses. While many countries faced direct pass-through of these increases, China experienced limited disruption. The main reason is a structural reduction in oil demand for transport fuels, achieved through two decades of policy and investment…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has reached a stage where the outcome increasingly hinges on a single 21-mile-wide waterway: the Strait of Hormuz. Investor Ray Dalio framed the situation starkly in mid-March 2026: “It all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz.” His point is not about the strait’s intrinsic value though it carries roughly 20–21 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, plus 20% of global LNG but about what happens if the United States and its allies cannot guarantee unrestricted passage through it. The conflict’s “final battle,”…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD China’s foreign trade has begun the year with unusual vigour. In the first two months alone, the country’s trade in goods returns to the “double digit era”, recording a 18.3% surge year-on-year. Imports reached 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. A defining feature of China’s latest trade boom is diversification. In the first two months of the year, total trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) reached 1.24 trillion yuan, up 20.3%. Trade with the European Union climbed 19.9% to 998.9 billion yuan. Commerce with Belt and Road countries rose 20% to…

By Nejat Madatoglu In recent days, we have witnessed highly tense events in the fields of politics and international diplomacy. Considering the war between the U.S. and Israel with Iran, Russia’s attempt to invade Ukraine, the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, and the developments in South America, we see that tension and conflict prevail across all continents. On the other hand, the impotence of international institutions, the failure of deterrence policies, and Europe’s major powers’ lack of ability to intervene in these tensions raise certain questions in people’s minds: Have the balances of power in the international diplomatic system changed radically? Has Europe,…