By Rama Chandran
America’s sudden withdrawal from climate leadership marks a stark departure from its previous joint efforts with China, which were fundamental to the Paris Agreement. The world has been left looking to China for hope. China is thus stepping up to fill the leadership vacuum. Since China believes that contributions should be commensurate with capabilities in climate governance, responding to the leadership call on climate change remains a diplomatic challenge.
Over the years, climate camaraderie has considerably diminished in the China-U.S. relationship. Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama had made some headway in prioritizing climate change as part of their agenda, but the issue did not come up at either the Xi-Tillerson meeting in 2017 or the Xi-Trump meeting in April 2017. This deviation between Obama and Trump suggested that climate change no longer occupied a central role on the China-U.S. agenda.
China’s Expanding Leadership in Renewable Energy
U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will make global warming more disastrous, and the U.S. will fall further behind China in the race to develop renewable energy.
As a result, China will reinforce its presence in the clean energy sector. China and the U.S. were neck and neck in clean energy capacity around the early 2000s. In 2024, China’s newly installed capacity for renewable energy accounted for 86 percent of the country’s total newly installed power capacity. Cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy reached a record 56 percent of the nation’s total. By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity reached 1.889 billion kilowatts, a 25 percent increase from 2023. Hydropower was 436 million kilowatts, wind power was 521 million, solar 887 million, and biomass power 46 million kilowatts.
Over the past decade of achieving an average annual economic growth of over 6 percent with a 3-percent increase in energy consumption, China has reduced its energy consumption per unit of GDP by 26.8 percent. China’s ambitious target is to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
China’s agenda by 2030 includes:
● A 15-trillion-yuan energy-saving and environmental protection industry.
● Raising non-fossil energy proportion to about 25 percent of the total national energy consumption.
● Recycling 4.5 billion metric tons of bulk solid waste annually.
Countries that imported China’s wind power and photovoltaic products could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 810 million tonnes in 2023, according to a white paper titled “China’s Energy Transition.” China accounted for nearly 80 percent of electric vehicle (EVs) growth globally in 2024, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). China is the primary source of greenfield foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia. About a third of investment flowed to clean tech such as solar, wind, and batteries from 2021 to October 2024.
C5: A New Model for Global Climate Governance
While Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement presents a challenge, it is also an opportunity for China. China will play a greater role in global green governance if it rises to accept it.
In 2017, Xi stated China’s position on the Paris Agreement at the UN Office at Geneva: “The Paris Agreement is a milestone in the history of climate governance. We must ensure this endeavor is not derailed. All parties should work together to implement the Paris Agreement. China will continue to take steps to tackle climate change and fully honor its obligations.”
While China remained steadfast in its commitment, Trump made a 180-degree turn. Domestically, China is expected not to make further mitigation commitments in addition to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). However, it should reach the high ends of its climate targets under the current NDCs. These include peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 and reducing the carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 65 percent below 2005 levels by the same year. Globally, China is expected to embrace a new Climate 5 (C5) partnership comprising China, the EU, India, Brazil, and South Africa.
Previously, China and the U.S. laid the groundwork for the Paris Agreement. But with Trump’s withdrawal, this partnership has ended. Proposals are on the table for China and the EU to step forward and strengthen collaboration on climate action.
Alongside its emissions share drop, the EU is entangled in crises including migration, refugees, debt, finance, terrorism, and Brexit. Brexit negotiations will consume the EU’s attention over climate change and the EU’s position as a global leader. The potential for China-EU green partnership will likely be complicated by disagreements between the two over an approach to climate governance. Therefore, China-EU cannot easily produce new leadership on global climate action. The C5 partnership, a better alternative, will more ideally fill the vacuum left by the U.S. The new partnership should include both developed countries such as France and Italy and developing countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa.
China certainly wins active global support after promoting international collaboration on green development by launching the Belt and Road Initiative International Green Development Coalition (BRIGC), a voluntary international network with partners from more than 40 countries seeking to pool environmental expertise. Following the U.S. withdrawal, China released a framework for sovereign green bonds, paving a foundation to issue offshore sovereign green bonds and global capital to invest in its green development.
American abandonment of the Paris Agreement has caused tragic losses for the world, and the U.S. should be held to account for its actions. To attract Trump to cooperate on nuclear energy, natural gas, and clean coal, the discourse can be shifted towards less focus on climate change and more on energy efficiency through the G20.
The author is a reputed editor and writer based in Kochi, India. He used to work as chief editor of the Janmabhumi Daily, news editor at The Week, and a political commentator at Malayala Manorama.
Students from Wenhe primary school sort old batteries and bulbs according to local standards in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province, September 1, 2020. Waste sorting had covered nearly 95 percent of residential communities in 46 pilot cities across China by the end of 2020, according to a report on enforcement of the Law on the Prevention and Control of Environmental Pollution by Solid Waste. (Photo from VCG)
An aerial view of Dongping National Forest Park in Chongming District, Shanghai, June 13, 2018. The national forest park is located on the north-central section of Chongming Island, the third-largest island in China. It covers a total area of 3.55 square kilometers, with a forest coverage rate of 90 percent. (Photo from IC)
