The upcoming United Nations meetings in New York may hold the key to resolving significant differences over increasing global climate finance, but the looming US presidential election threatens to derail progress. With the election scheduled for November 5, countries are hesitant to stake out their positions before knowing who will emerge victorious and set climate policy for the next four years.
The US election uncertainty has cast a shadow over global climate talks, with governments carefully analyzing scenarios for possible wins by Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. A third scenario, involving a delayed or disputed election result, is also being considered.
The UN General Assembly, which convenes this week, represents the last opportunity for all countries to gather before the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11. Reaching a new climate finance target and expanding the donor base are proving to be significant challenges.
The stakes are high, with the current $100 billion financing pledge set to expire at the end of the year. Failing to agree on a new target could jeopardize future climate negotiations and undermine trust among developing countries relying on these funds.
UN climate agency chief Simon Stiell estimates that the annual climate finance requirement is in the trillions to support poorer countries in transitioning to clean energy and preparing for a warmer world.
The US election outcome will significantly impact global climate efforts. A Harris presidency would ensure continuity, while Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Climate negotiators acknowledge the new urgency in the climate fight due to rising global temperatures and extremes. They are preparing for unexpected outcomes, recognizing that the US election uncertainty affects how countries position themselves in climate talks.
