Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slim 46% to 43% lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. With just two weeks remaining until the November 5 election, the race remains exceptionally tight. The poll, conducted over six days and concluding on Monday, shows Harris’ lead within the margin of error, reinforcing the close nature of the contest. A previous poll last week showed a similar result, with Harris leading 45% to 42%.
The poll highlights a dissatisfied electorate, with 70% of registered voters stating that the cost of living is heading in the wrong direction, 60% unhappy with the state of the economy, and 65% critical of immigration policy. On these issues, Trump holds an advantage, with 46% of voters favoring his approach to the economy compared to Harris’ 38%, and 48% backing his immigration policy compared to Harris’ 35%. Immigration emerged as the top priority for voters, with 35% listing it as the key issue for the next president to tackle during their first 100 days in office.
However, Harris leads Trump on several crucial issues, including handling political extremism and threats to democracy, with a 42% to 35% advantage. She also has the upper hand on abortion and healthcare policy, areas where she resonates more with the electorate.
Despite her narrow lead in the national polls, Harris may still struggle to secure the presidency. The Electoral College system, which determines the election outcome, could pose a significant hurdle, particularly in battleground states where the race is extremely close. Trump won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by 2 points, a reminder that national polling figures may not directly reflect the final result.
The latest poll also indicates a higher level of voter enthusiasm compared to the 2020 election. Around 79% of registered voters said they were “completely certain” they would vote, including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans. This marks an increase from a similar poll conducted in 2020, when 74% of voters expressed the same level of certainty.
Harris entered the presidential race in July after President Joe Biden withdrew his re-election bid following a poor debate performance against Trump. At that time, Trump was seen as a strong contender, bolstered by his perceived strength on economic issues, especially following a period of high inflation under the Biden administration.
As the race tightens, both candidates will focus on ensuring their supporters turn out to vote. Voter turnout in 2020 was the highest in over a century, with roughly two-thirds of eligible adults casting ballots. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 U.S. adults nationwide, including 3,481 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Among likely voters, Harris holds a 48% to 45% lead over Trump.
