By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD
As the United States approaches its November 2026 midterm elections, the contest carries consequences that reach far beyond domestic politics. With President Donald Trump’s administration confronting stagflation risks, supply chain vulnerabilities, and complex global tensions, the composition of Congress will heavily influence America’s ability to pursue a calibrated China policy. From Pakistan’s vantage point, a strong Republican performance offers the best prospect for policy continuity — enabling Trump to shift from confrontation toward pragmatic cooperation with China in ways that deliver tangible benefits to American businesses, consumers, and workers.
Midterm elections often serve as a check on the president, with the incumbent party frequently losing seats. However, in the current environment of narrow Republican majorities, losing control of the House or Senate would likely produce legislative gridlock, intensified partisan oversight, and a focus on investigations rather than governance. Such paralysis would constrain Trump’s transactional approach precisely when flexibility is needed to negotiate better outcomes with Beijing.
Economic Realism and the China Opportunity
America’s economic challenges — persistent inflation, elevated debt, and uneven growth — make a functional relationship with China increasingly important. China remains the world’s factory and a massive consumer market. American companies continue to rely on its manufacturing ecosystem for affordable components, finished goods, and scale that supports domestic jobs. Prolonged confrontation through broad tariffs and restrictions has often raised costs for US consumers and manufacturers, as evidenced by previous trade rounds where importers absorbed much of the burden.
A Congress aligned with Trump would give his administration space to pursue targeted deals rather than blanket decoupling. This could mean expanding Chinese purchases of US agricultural products, energy, and aircraft; securing more predictable access for American firms in non-sensitive sectors; and gradually diversifying supply chains without abrupt disruptions that fuel inflation. In an era where Ray Dalio and others warn of stagflation, cheaper imports from China act as a natural check on prices, helping preserve purchasing power for American families and supporting demand.
Agricultural exports offer a clear example. China has historically been a major buyer of American soybeans, pork, and corn. Sustained engagement can protect farm incomes and reduce the need for government subsidies. Similarly, technology and manufacturing firms seek stable rules on investment and market access. A gridlocked Congress risks forcing more ideological, all-or-nothing policies that harm American competitiveness. Continuity, by contrast, would allow Trump to leverage tariffs as negotiation tools rather than permanent barriers — a style that previously produced partial agreements like the Phase One deal.For ordinary Americans, the stakes are concrete: lower prices at retail stores, more stable jobs in export-oriented sectors, and relief from inflationary pressures. Reducing unnecessary confrontation with China while defending core interests could deliver measurable economic relief at a time when households are feeling squeezed.
Foreign Policy Flexibility and Strategic Balance
Beyond economics, a supportive Congress would strengthen Trump’s hand in managing broader strategic competition with China. His preference for bilateral, deal-oriented diplomacy has the potential to establish guardrails on issues such as Taiwan, technology transfers, and critical minerals. With unified government, the administration could pursue simultaneous pressure where necessary and cooperation where interests overlap — particularly on supply chain resilience, energy stability, and avoiding escalation in the Indo-Pacific.
A divided Congress, however, would tie the administration’s hands through funding battles and constant hearings, reducing America’s ability to negotiate from strength or offer credible commitments. This risks pushing policy toward greater rigidity rather than pragmatism. Trump’s record shows that personal engagement with Chinese leadership can yield results even amid rivalry. Sustained Republican support would enable him to test whether reduced confrontation on economic files can produce wins for American workers and industries.
Pakistan observes these dynamics with keen interest. As a country with deep economic ties to China through CPEC and important security relations with the United States, we benefit when the two powers manage their differences constructively. Heightened US-China tensions raise global commodity prices, disrupt investment, and limit policy space for nations like ours. A more cooperative US approach toward China would contribute to predictability and stability in global markets.
The Value of Functional Governance
Critics rightly note risks of overreach in any administration. Yet American institutions — courts, states, media, and future elections — provide strong checks. The immediate question is whether temporary policy continuity allows Trump to pursue results-oriented engagement with China or whether perpetual division entrenches inconsistency and economic self-harm.
Early signals in 2026 suggest voters are focused on pocketbook issues: inflation, jobs, and living costs. A Republican hold in Congress could enable course corrections based on practical outcomes rather than ideological deadlock. This does not guarantee success, but it increases the likelihood of calibrated diplomacy that balances competition with necessary cooperation.
Pakistan has long navigated great-power relations through pragmatism and diversification. We do not seek to influence American domestic choices. Yet we recognise that a United States capable of coherent, flexible policy toward China serves broader international stability. For American citizens, the potential upside is significant: lower costs, stronger export markets, and reduced risk of self-inflicted economic wounds.
In turbulent times, functional governance in Washington remains preferable to paralysis. A Republican victory in the midterms would not end US-China rivalry, but it could create the political space for Trump to pursue smarter engagement — one that delivers concrete benefits to the American people while managing strategic competition responsibly. That outcome would be welcomed by nations seeking predictability in an interdependent world.
Author:
Qaiser Nawab is Chairman of the Belt and Road Initiative for Sustainable Development (BRISD), an international platform fostering cooperation and innovation across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. He can be reached at qaisernawab098@gmail.com
