Written by Agil Alesger
What happened in the USA? How did the process unfold? Who emerged more profitable from this agreement? First, it should be noted that after completing territorial integrity, the most important issue for Azerbaijan is lasting peace and stability in the region. Azerbaijan will work with any state that supports this.
Not Democracy, but Economic Cooperation
One of the noteworthy points of this agreement is America’s involvement in the region. Many of us are uncomfortable with the chaos that the USA brings to the places it enters. However, the USA usually brings chaos wherever it promises “democracy.” In this case, the USA favors economic cooperation, especially regarding the 32 kilometers of Armenian territory. Indeed, much of Armenia’s transportation systems and energy plants are under foreign control.
The situation won’t change simply because one of the highways is leased by the USA.When it comes to Azerbaijan, all logistical infrastructure in Eastern Zangezur is ready and under our control. In other words, there is no need for a third state or company.
The Minsk Group of the OSCE is a Thing of the PastWhile yesterday’s statement is not a definitive peace agreement, it is a substantial step toward peace. Specifically, the USA lifted all prohibitions it had imposed on Azerbaijan due to the conflict with Armenia, effectively terminating the OSCE Minsk Group legally.
For the first time, the leaders of both states signed an agreement indicating their rejection of the Minsk Group. It’s worth noting that the OSCE Minsk Group, which was ineffective during the war, primarily served Armenia’s interests. France, Russia, and the USA were part of this group and were more concerned with retaining control of the territories by Armenians than finding solutions.
In this context, the signature of this clause by Paşinyan and the then-president of the OSCE Minsk Group, Donald Trump, can be considered one of President Aliyev’s historic achievements.
Why Does Turkey Not Appear at the Table? Here’s the Reason…Azerbaijan is successfully shaping regional policies and other dynamics alongside Turkey as a strategic partner. This partnership has strengthened Azerbaijan significantly after the conflicts in the Karabakh region, positioning Turkey as an important ally by solidifying its economic and diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, Armenia is compelled to develop new strategies while trying to safeguard its regional position amid the fluctuations in its relations with Russia. Russia’s attempts to prolong peace negotiations have provoked Armenia’s response and hastened its search for alternative allies. In this regard, the increasing role of the USA in the region has created a new political atmosphere for Armenia. Paşinyan aims to overcome internal political challenges by acquiring new allies.
Considering that Paşinyan is currently at odds with church leaders and businessmen under Russian influence in Armenia, having an ally like the USA will significantly strengthen his position, making it possible to prevent dissenters from inciting the public while implementing the conditions of the peace agreement. Having Turkey prominently involved could complicate matters for Paşinyan regarding domestic dynamics. All parties are aware of this, and the game appears aimed at ensuring Paşinyan’s victory in the 2026 elections by facilitating the signing of a final agreement to contribute to lasting peace in the Caucasus.
In short, Turkey’s more cautious stance in this process is closely tied to its long-term stability goals in the region. Aliyev’s statement, “Wherever I am, Turkey is there,” clearly highlights Turkey’s influence and partnership in the region. In this regard, Turkey’s diplomatic efforts not to weaken Paşinyan’s position can be viewed as part of a strategy to create a more stable region in the long run.
Additionally, the fact that Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was the first to support the peace declaration shortly after it was announced demonstrates that there is no environment without Turkey.
What Does Azerbaijan Want for Lasting Peace?
Two key elements among Azerbaijan’s demands stand out:
1. Unlimited Access to Nakhchivan: This demand aims to facilitate Azerbaijan’s regional transportation and trade, bolstering economic integrity. Recognition of this right will enhance the security of international trade routes and represent a significant step for regional cooperation.
2. Amendments to the Armenian Constitution: This demand introduces the idea of reassessing Armenia’s political structure and national security strategies. Changes will allow for normalizing relations with Azerbaijan. The reason behind this is that the Armenian Constitution and its declaration of independence include territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan advocates abolishing these unlawful legal elements that threaten lasting peace.
Regardless of who guarantees secure transit to Nakhchivan, the opening of this corridor is crucial for both Turkey and Azerbaijan. This situation will lay a foundation for not only regional economic integration but also strategic collaborations. Azerbaijan endured five years of Russian maneuvering on this issue. However, instead of producing solutions, Russia exhibited oppressive and aggressive behavior toward Azerbaijan, which has now effectively changed the date from November 10, 2020, to August 8, 2025.
In conclusion, this complex diplomatic relationship and negotiations are of vital importance not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia but for all regional countries. Winning parties will engage in more cooperative frameworks around shared economic and security concerns, while the loser will be Russia, which operates based on the interests of the old order. New power dynamics have the potential to fundamentally change the political and economic fabric in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
In 2020, when only Azerbaijan and Turkey were in the region, now there are Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyz Republic in Karabakh, and considering that Turkmenistan has also shown interest in these projects, predicting the changes awaiting the region is not difficult.
All these dynamics provide essential clues about how peace and cooperation in the region will shape in the upcoming period. The positive changes initiated by these steps bring new hopes for the people in the region.
Agil Alesger
President of Azerbaijan Yeni Çağ Media Group Member of the Board of Azerbaijan Press Council
