Author: HeraldStar

ByQaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD The petrodollar system, which has anchored the US dollar’s dominance in global energy markets for five decades, is showing measurable signs of strain. The 1974 agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia — under which Riyadh priced oil exports in dollars and recycled surpluses into US Treasuries in exchange for security guarantees — created a self-reinforcing cycle that sustained dollar demand. In 2026, however, that arrangement is under pressure from multiple directions. Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20–21 million barrels per day of crude and products (roughly 20–27% of…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD Global oil prices rose sharply in early 2026, with Brent crude exceeding $100 per barrel in mid-March after disruptions in the Middle East and heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices fluctuated between $92 and $111 per barrel during the month, pushing up gasoline and diesel costs in oil-importing economies and adding immediate pressure on transport, freight, and manufacturing expenses. While many countries faced direct pass-through of these increases, China experienced limited disruption. The main reason is a structural reduction in oil demand for transport fuels, achieved through two decades of policy and investment…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has reached a stage where the outcome increasingly hinges on a single 21-mile-wide waterway: the Strait of Hormuz. Investor Ray Dalio framed the situation starkly in mid-March 2026: “It all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz.” His point is not about the strait’s intrinsic value though it carries roughly 20–21 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, plus 20% of global LNG but about what happens if the United States and its allies cannot guarantee unrestricted passage through it. The conflict’s “final battle,”…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD China’s foreign trade has begun the year with unusual vigour. In the first two months alone, the country’s trade in goods returns to the “double digit era”, recording a 18.3% surge year-on-year. Imports reached 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. A defining feature of China’s latest trade boom is diversification. In the first two months of the year, total trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) reached 1.24 trillion yuan, up 20.3%. Trade with the European Union climbed 19.9% to 998.9 billion yuan. Commerce with Belt and Road countries rose 20% to…

By Nejat Madatoglu In recent days, we have witnessed highly tense events in the fields of politics and international diplomacy. Considering the war between the U.S. and Israel with Iran, Russia’s attempt to invade Ukraine, the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, and the developments in South America, we see that tension and conflict prevail across all continents. On the other hand, the impotence of international institutions, the failure of deterrence policies, and Europe’s major powers’ lack of ability to intervene in these tensions raise certain questions in people’s minds: Have the balances of power in the international diplomatic system changed radically? Has Europe,…

By Hu Zhoumeng On March 5, Chinese Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed in the annual government work report that China will enhance services and support for foreign-funded enterprises to ensure it is a favored destination for foreign investment. For international capital constantly reassessing risks amid uncertainty, the message served as welcome reassurance. Early 2026 has already witnessed a wave of new foreign-invested projects across China. From Guangzhou to Suzhou, and from Foshan to Zhuhai, multinational companies have announced expansions and new facilities. South Korea’s STI aims to build a power semiconductor manufacturing base in Guangzhou. British manufacturer McGavigan has planned a research and production hub for high-end…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD The American political landscape has entered a period of profound constitutional turbulence. A coalition of 24 U.S. states has filed a sweeping legal challenge against the Trump administration’s latest imposition of global tariffs.       The genesis of this legal rebellion lies in the administration’s interpretation of executive authority under the guise of national security. For decades, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 has granted the President power to adjust imports deemed a threat to national security. However, the 24 states argue this authority has been stretched beyond its breaking point. The plaintiffs contend…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD In a remote mining community in northeast Nigeria, tuberculosis screening no longer begins in a hospital. It begins outdoors, where workers line up beside an ultra-portable X-ray machine and health staff read the images with the help of artificial intelligence. The device was supplied by a Chinese medical AI company. This is one instance of a wider pattern. Chinese medical AI is becoming visible in parts of the global south. It is screening: sorting large populations for probable disease, flagging who needs further testing, operating at volumes no human workforce can match on the budgets…

By Qaiser Nawab As the conflict in Iran intensifies following the U.S. and Israeli strikes that began on February 28, 2026, the region faces profound instability. The situation remains fluid, with implications extending to neighboring countries, including Pakistan’s Balochistan province, which shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan region. Balochistan, already navigating its own developmental and security challenges, is witnessing direct consequences from the unrest in Iran. Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti reported that nearly 2,000 individuals had entered by early March 2026, with provincial authorities on high alert and providing necessary assistance. The United Nations has cautioned that prolonged…

By Qaiser Nawab, Chairman BRISD On March 6, 2026, during a press conference on the sidelines of China’s National People’s Congress, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao announced a significant economic achievement: measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), China’s consumer market has become the largest in the world over the course of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). PPP adjusts for differences in price levels and cost of living across countries, providing a more realistic comparison of what consumers can actually buy rather than relying solely on nominal exchange rates. In nominal terms, China’s retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion…